1999–2023
Benchmarks
Every model we track, scored the same way: flat one-unit stakes against the closing spread at standard −110 juice. A win rate above 52.4% beats the vig — the field mostly doesn't, which is the point of benchmarking.
Career records — every graded season pooled into one row per model.
- Models tracked
- 65
- Graded picks
- 231,239
- Beat the vig
- 3 / 65
- Profitable all-time
- 3 / 65
1999–2023
across all models
win rate ≥ 52.38%
units at −110
| # | Type | Trend | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Betting Benchmarks | 👤 Public | 17 (2007–2023) | 3,967 | 52.71% | +0.63% | 53% | +24.9u | |
| 2 | ARGH Ratings | 👤 Public | 24 (2000–2023) | 5,009 | 51.73% | -1.25% | 46% | -62.5u | |
| 3 | Cleanup Hitter | 👤 Public | 10 (2014–2023) | 2,439 | 51.58% | -1.53% | 30% | -37.4u | |
| 4 | Benchmark: Underdog | 🏆 Benchmark | 25 (1999–2023) | 6,062 | 51.57% | -1.55% | 40% | -94.2u | |
| 5 | rp-excel | 👤 Public | 16 (2008–2023) | 3,681 | 51.32% | -2.03% | 44% | -74.7u | |
| 6 | FF Winners | 👤 Public | 10 (2014–2023) | 2,333 | 51.22% | -2.21% | 50% | -51.6u | |
| 7 | Game-Time Decision | 👤 Public | 16 (2008–2023) | 3,443 | 51.18% | -2.30% | 38% | -79.2u | |
| 8 | Massey Ratings | 👤 Public | 21 (1999–2023) | 4,659 | 51.17% | -2.31% | 43% | -107.7u | |
| 9 | PerformanZ Ratings | 👤 Public | 25 (1999–2023) | 5,731 | 51.14% | -2.36% | 40% | -135.5u | |
| 10 | Benchmark: Away Team | 🏆 Benchmark | 25 (1999–2023) | 6,062 | 50.97% | -2.69% | 20% | -162.9u | |
| 11 | Sagarin | 👤 Public | 25 (1999–2023) | 5,734 | 50.94% | -2.75% | 28% | -157.5u | |
| 12 | ESPN FPI | 👤 Public | 9 (2015–2023) | 2,297 | 50.89% | -2.84% | 44% | -65.3u | |
| 13 | PiRatings | 👤 Public | 10 (2014–2023) | 2,514 | 50.88% | -2.87% | 30% | -72.3u | |
| 14 | Talisman Red's Ratings | 👤 Public | 10 (2014–2023) | 2,441 | 50.84% | -2.94% | 30% | -71.8u | |
| 15 | Sagarin Prediction | 👤 Public | 22 (2002–2023) | 5,219 | 50.81% | -2.99% | 32% | -156.1u | |
| 16 | Prediction Tracker: Median | 👤 Public | 20 (2004–2023) | 4,655 | 50.78% | -3.05% | 40% | -141.9u | |
| 17 | Beck Logistic Regression | 👤 Public | 22 (2002–2023) | 4,980 | 50.74% | -3.13% | 36% | -155.7u | |
| 18 | Computer Adjusted Line | 👤 Public | 20 (2004–2023) | 3,188 | 50.72% | -3.17% | 20% | -101.0u | |
| 19 | Prediction Tracker: Average | 👤 Public | 24 (2000–2023) | 5,495 | 50.68% | -3.24% | 29% | -178.2u | |
| 20 | Benchmark: Line Open | 🏆 Benchmark | 21 (2003–2023) | 3,987 | 50.51% | -3.56% | 33% | -142.1u | |
| 21 | Roger Johnson | 👤 Public | 16 (2006–2023) | 3,104 | 50.48% | -3.62% | 25% | -112.5u | |
| 22 | Lou St. John | 👤 Public | 11 (2013–2023) | 2,770 | 50.43% | -3.72% | 27% | -103.0u | |
| 23 | Dokter Entropy | 👤 Public | 18 (2006–2023) | 4,243 | 50.39% | -3.80% | 33% | -161.4u | |
| 24 | Beck Points Per Game | 👤 Public | 10 (2014–2023) | 2,530 | 50.36% | -3.87% | 20% | -97.8u | |
| 25 | Beck Least Squares HFA | 👤 Public | 25 (1999–2023) | 5,685 | 50.31% | -3.96% | 28% | -225.0u | |
| 26 | Beck Turnover Adjusted Least Squares | 👤 Public | 12 (2012–2023) | 3,010 | 50.30% | -3.97% | 33% | -119.6u | |
| 27 | StatFox | 👤 Public | 23 (2001–2023) | 4,968 | 50.24% | -4.08% | 17% | -202.9u | |
| 28 | Ken Ashby's Accuratings | 👤 Public | 20 (2004–2023) | 4,401 | 50.19% | -4.18% | 25% | -183.8u | |
| 29 | TeamRankings | 👤 Public | 8 (2016–2023) | 2,031 | 50.12% | -4.31% | 13% | -87.5u | |
| 30 | Sonny Moore's Ratings | 👤 Public | 25 (1999–2023) | 5,691 | 50.03% | -4.50% | 12% | -255.8u | |
| 31 | Pigskin Index | 👤 Public | 24 (2000–2023) | 5,088 | 50.00% | -4.55% | 17% | -231.3u | |
| 32 | Dunkel Index | 👤 Public | 22 (2000–2023) | 5,000 | 49.98% | -4.58% | 18% | -229.2u | |
| 33 | Pickwatch Top 50 Experts | 💰 Paid | 8 (2016–2023) | 1,927 | 49.92% | -4.69% | 13% | -90.5u | |
| 34 | Coffey Ratings | 👤 Public | 22 (2002–2023) | 3,745 | 49.91% | -4.72% | 23% | -176.9u | |
| 35 | Sagarin Golden Mean | 👤 Public | 10 (2014–2023) | 2,539 | 49.90% | -4.73% | 20% | -120.2u | |
| 36 | PiRatings Mean | 👤 Public | 10 (2014–2023) | 2,512 | 49.84% | -4.85% | 20% | -121.8u | |
| 37 | Pythagorean Ratings | 👤 Public | 25 (1999–2023) | 5,652 | 49.82% | -4.88% | 12% | -276.0u | |
| 38 | DRatings | 👤 Public | 11 (2013–2023) | 2,726 | 49.78% | -4.97% | 9% | -135.4u | |
| 39 | Beck Least Absolute Value Regression | 👤 Public | 25 (1999–2023) | 5,690 | 49.75% | -5.02% | 20% | -285.4u | |
| 40 | Beck Scoring Efficiency | 👤 Public | 25 (1999–2023) | 5,626 | 49.73% | -5.05% | 16% | -284.4u | |
| 41 | Benchmark: Line Midweek | 🏆 Benchmark | 11 (2013–2023) | 2,067 | 49.64% | -5.24% | 18% | -108.3u | |
| 42 | Beck Least Squares Regression | 👤 Public | 25 (1999–2023) | 5,724 | 49.56% | -5.38% | 28% | -307.9u | |
| 43 | PiRatings Bias | 👤 Public | 10 (2014–2023) | 2,514 | 49.28% | -5.91% | 30% | -148.6u | |
| 44 | Beck Elo | 👤 Public | 24 (2000–2023) | 5,468 | 49.18% | -6.12% | 17% | -334.5u | |
| 45 | Stephen Kerns | 👤 Public | 18 (2006–2023) | 4,025 | 49.14% | -6.18% | 17% | -248.8u | |
| 46 | RWP Team Ranks | 👤 Public | 12 (2011–2023) | 2,851 | 49.04% | -6.39% | 8% | -182.1u | |
| 47 | Benchmark: Home Team | 🏆 Benchmark | 25 (1999–2023) | 6,062 | 49.03% | -6.40% | 0% | -388.2u | |
| 48 | Betting Benchmarks Basic Model | 👤 Public | 23 (2001–2023) | 5,231 | 48.90% | -6.64% | 26% | -347.5u | |
| 49 | DCI Pro Football | 👤 Public | 10 (2014–2023) | 2,526 | 48.69% | -7.04% | 10% | -177.8u | |
| 50 | Benchmark: Coach ATS | 🏆 Benchmark | 25 (1999–2023) | 6,062 | 48.68% | -7.06% | 4% | -428.3u | |
| 51 | DPD's Dogs | 👤 Public | 17 (2007–2023) | 3,830 | 48.64% | -7.14% | 6% | -273.4u | |
| 52 | OddsShark Computer Picks | 👤 Public | 4 (2013–2023) | 773 | 48.64% | -7.14% | 0% | -55.2u | |
| 53 | Hanson Crew | 👤 Public | 8 (2016–2023) | 1,814 | 48.51% | -7.39% | 13% | -134.0u | |
| 54 | Benchmark: Favorite | 🏆 Benchmark | 25 (1999–2023) | 6,062 | 48.43% | -7.54% | 8% | -456.9u | |
| 55 | Benchmark: Team ATS | 🏆 Benchmark | 25 (1999–2023) | 6,062 | 48.32% | -7.76% | 4% | -470.3u | |
| 56 | Versus Sports Simulator | 👤 Public | 13 (2011–2023) | 3,244 | 48.21% | -7.96% | 0% | -258.2u | |
| 57 | Roundtable Ratings | 👤 Public | 12 (2012–2023) | 2,534 | 47.75% | -8.84% | 17% | -224.0u | |
| 58 | Sagarin Recent | 👤 Public | 3 (2016–2023) | 763 | 47.44% | -9.42% | 0% | -71.9u |
58 of 65 models (min. 3 seasons — ) · win % pooled over every graded pick · trend is cumulative profit by season
Reading these tables
Coverage is not equal. Some models are graded for all 25 seasons, others for one — so the all-time view opens on models with 3+ seasons, sorted by ROI, which compares like with like. Set min. seasons to "any" and sort by profit to see raw cumulative totals instead (where longevity dominates).
ROI is profit per unit staked. At −110 a coin-flip model returns −4.5%, so anything positive is genuine edge — Profitable yrs is the share of a model's own seasons that finished in the black, which separates steady edges from one lucky year.
Picks are graded against the closing spread, the hardest available benchmark. Models publishing earlier in the week may beat the number they actually bet while still losing to the close — see our methodology.
* Models we grade directly from the provider's own published picks rather than via The Prediction Tracker archive.