Models & Forecasts · NFL 2026
The ATS Board: Week 1
Sixteen games, one number: expected value per unit at the price you can actually bet. 5 sides clear the 53% bar the record is built on — 59.6% ATS, +13.9% ROI over 275 plays since 2023, graded against opening lines.
Updated September 7, 2026 at 10:13 PM ET · consensus prices · click any row for the full case
Every game, ranked by EV
Deeper blue means more value at today’s price; orange means the market’s number beats ours.
RKOur sideOpenModel
53% — THE +EV BARplays above · forecasts below · the record is built on this cutoff
-6% EV+10% EVgraded vs opening lines · calibrated on held-out seasons · not betting adviceBETTING BENCHMARKS